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India Economics:Minutes of the MPC –Wait &Watch Mode

时间: 2017-12-22 18:30 来源:新浪财经

机构:麦格理证券股份有限公司  研究员:麦格理证券研究所

Minutes of December MPC meeting released: The RBI released today (20Dec) the minutes of the MPC meeting held on December 5-6, 2017. Recall,the RBI had held key rates unchanged with a vote of 5-1, with MPC memberDr. Dholakia dissenting for a 25bp rate cut.

The details of the MPC reveal that all members who voted for the statusquo remain concerned about:

Upside risks to inflation: The MPC minutes highlighted that allmembers remain concerned with regard to the inflation trajectory, andexpect inflation to remain above the 4% mark in the near term. The risksto inflation as per the MPC members stems from

(1) a turn in the globalcommodity price cycle, mainly the firming up of oil prices and geopoliticalrisks could further aggravate a commodity price rise,(2) anincrease in household inflation expectations in the latest round,(3) riskof fiscal slippages and (4) supply disruptions impacting vegetable prices.The committee is likely to assess the evolving inflation trajectory anddrivers of inflation very closely.

Data dependent to assess strength of a rebound in growth: TheMPC members note that incoming data on growth has shown a slightimprovement. However, the members remain extremely data dependentto analyze the underlying strength of the recovery. The members notedthat downside risks to growth could stem from weaker agricultureactivity (weak trend in Rabi sowing), upside in inputs costs (commodityprices) hurting firms’ margins, however, the committee also noted thatgrowth could be positively impacted by the favorable global growth,improvement in credit offtake with recapitalization of PSU banks.

Our view – Extended pause: We expect the RBI to keep policy rates on anextended pause going into FY19as inflation is likely be around 4.5% (barringvolatility due to base effect) and growth is expected to be on a gradualrecovery path. While we expect inflation will breach RBI’s stated target rangeof 4.3-4.7% for 2H FY18and edge higher in QE Jun towards 5.5% (driven bya low base), we expect the RBI to take into the account the idiosyncraticfactors impacting inflation and still a nascent growth recovery, which shouldkeep the central bank on hold (while it can sound incrementally hawkish giventhe inflation trajectory).




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