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EMEA Snap:Saudi Arabia,Budget Overview

时间: 2017-12-22 18:30 来源:新浪财经

机构:德意志银行  研究员:德意志银行研究所

The Kingdom has unveiled an expansionary budget aimed at boosting growthfollowing this year's output contraction; delaying fiscal neutrality by three yearsto 2023.

Although the fiscal loosening still remains modest but the government expectsan improvement in real macroeconomic indicators for the next year on the backof more capital expenditure and economic reforms. The budget forecasts anambitious growth rate for 2018, a real GDP growth of 2.7%. The Kingdom expectsan increase in the non-oil sector's growth to 3.7% with the private sector actingas the main driver (see figure 3 below).

The budget also reveals that the current account recorded a surplus of about14.4 billion riyals (USD 3.85bn) or equivalent to 0.5% of nominal domestic outputduring the first half of 2017, and is expected to achieve a higher surplus duringthe second half of this year with the surplus to continue in 2018 on the back ofhigher oil prices.

According to the document, the budget deficit in 2017 is expected to reach8.9% of GDP, a significant decrease from the budget deficit in 2016 whichamounted to 12.8% of GDP. Revenue is expected to increase by 34% to reachSAR 696bn as a result of the increase in oil and non-oil revenues, while publicexpenditure rose by 11.6% to reach 926 billion riyals.

In the 2018 budget, the government aims to reduce the budget deficit to about7.3% of GDP. The YoY increase in the total revenues in the budget of 2018 isestimated at 12.6%. Non-oil revenues are expected to increase by about 14%.

The 2018 budget includes an increase in public expenditure by 5.6% and anincrease in revenues by 13% compared to 2017. A main driver of the increasein government spending is capital expenditure which is due to the increase by13.6% to finance the vision project as well as state projects targeting residentialconstruction and infrastructure. On the revenue side, although tax collectionswould only contribute about 18% to revenues it is expected to increase by 46% in2018 on YoY basis driven mainly by taxes on goods and services (81% increase).

In the light of government growth targets and to stimulate the economy after ayear of recession (-0.5% real output contraction), the revisions made to publicfinances would delay achieving financial balance in 2023 instead of 2020.




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