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Asia Petrochemical:2018outlook,supply discipline prolonged cycle,non-PE even better

时间: 2017-12-26 18:20 来源:新浪财经

机构:德意志银行  研究员:德意志银行研究所

2018another good year for chemicals earnings; initiating Korean coverage

The outlook for the petrochemical sector continues to be positive; Asian chemicalcompanies' weighted spreads will likely be maintained despite a high base. Weare bullish based on prolonged peak earnings driven by supply side discipline,potential further delays or cancellations in projects and stringent environmentalmeasures disrupting supply. Hence, the key themes in 2018are: 1) ethylene cyclesoftens but with limited damage to spreads; 2) non-PE continues to strengthen inthe absence of naphtha cracker (NCC) additions; and 3) environmental constraintsboosting the chlor-alkali chain cycle. Thus, we initiate our Korean coverage withBuy ratings on LG Chem & Kumho Petrochem, and Hold ratings on Lotte Chem& Hanwha Chem.

Ethylene cycle rolling off but spreads sustain at high level

We expect PE chain spreads will ease back from their peak but remain healthy,after a highly profitable 2017. Based on our global ethylene model, 2018/19Eutilization rate will decline to 89% / 88%, still within mid-cycle. With the additionalgas-ethane-based supply from the US, we continue to see risks of delays,outages, and slower ramp-up, and even Chinese ban on recycled plastics importsto support the cycle. Best leverage to theme: PTTGC, Lotte Chem, & Chandra Asri.Non-ethylene: structurally upbeat with synthetic rubber leading the wayTight supply demand is heading for the non-PE cycle given limited NCC additionsgoing forward since 67% of 2018E/19E new additions to capacity are gas-ethanebased,which focus on ethylene. We expect the non-PE utilization rate to increaseby 1.5% yoy in 2018E while synthetic rubber is the best product area with +4.3%yoy improvement. In our view, Asia naphtha crackers with good exposure tonon-PE will enjoy this imminent upcycle. Best leverage to the theme: LG Chem,Kumho, SPC, & IRPC.




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